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Research

Professor Brian Francis

Professor of Social Statistics

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  1. 2025
  2. Published

    Conflicting trends in violent crime measured by police recorded crime and the crime survey in England and Wales since 2010.

    Francis, B. & Walby, S., 4/06/2025, In: PLoS ONE. 20, 6, 25 p., 0324272.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  3. Published

    Tackling Violence Against Women and Girls: Funding and Measurement: Written evidence submitted to the Parliamentary Home Affairs Committee on tackling Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG).

    Walby, S. & Francis, B., 30/04/2025, 6 p. UK Parliament.

    Research output: Other contribution

  4. Published

    The need for an improved definition of violence against women and girls: Written response to the Public Accounts Committee on Tackling Violence against Women and Girls (VAWG)

    Francis, B., 1/04/2025, 4 p. London : UK Parliament.

    Research output: Other contribution

  5. Published

    Definition and measurement of violence in the Crime Survey for England and Wales: Implications for the amount and gendering of violence

    Davies, E., Obolenskaya, P., Francis, B., Blom, N., Phoenix, J., Pullerits, M. & Walby, S., 31/03/2025, In: British Journal of Criminology. 65, 2, p. 261-281 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  6. Published

    Developing a Complete Sentence Severity Scale using Extended Goodman RC models

    Wallace, S. & Francis, B., 31/03/2025, In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 41, 1, p. 75-102 28 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  7. Published

    The use of multiple systems estimation to estimate the number of unattributed paintings by Modigliani

    Jackson, J. & Francis, B., 1/03/2025, In: Statistical Methods and Applications. 34, 1, p. 21-37 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  8. Published

    Improving the estimate of trafficking in human beings and modern slavery by integrating data from ILO/Walk Free/IOM and UNODC

    Walby, S. & Francis, B., 1/01/2025, In: Social Indicators Research. 176, 2, p. 669-693 25 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  9. 2024
  10. Published

    Improving global modern slavery estimates: Behind the paper

    Francis, B. & Walby, S., 28/11/2024

    Research output: Exhibits, objects and web-based outputs › Blog

  11. Published

    Obtaining (Ɛ,δ)-differential privacy guarantees when using the Poisson distribution to synthesize tabular data

    Jackson, J., Mitra, R., Francis, B. & Dove, I., 12/09/2024, Privacy in Statistical Databases – PSD2024. Domingo-Ferrer, J. & Önen, M. (eds.). Cham: Springer, p. 102-112 11 p. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; vol. 14915).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter (peer-reviewed) › peer-review

  12. 2023
  13. Published

    Care Experience, Ethnicity and Youth Justice Involvement: Key Trends and Policy Implications

    Hunter, K., Francis, B. & Fitzpatrick, C., 21/09/2023, 15 p. ADR-UK.

    Research output: Other contribution

  14. Published

    Police risk assessment and case outcomes in missing person investigations

    Phoenix, J. & Francis, B., 1/09/2023, In: The Police Journal: Theory, Practice and Principles. 96, 3, p. 390-410 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  15. 2022
  16. Published

    Using saturated count models for user-friendly synthesis of large confidential administrative databases

    Jackson, J., Mitra, R., Francis, B. & Dove, I., 31/10/2022, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 185, 4, p. 1613-1643 31 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  17. Published

    Whitehead et al. Response to “Misunderstandings of Multiple Systems Estimation.”

    Whitehead, J., Jackson, J., Balch, A. & Francis, B., 31/10/2022, In: Journal of Human Trafficking. 8, 4, p. 469-473 5 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  18. Published

    On integrating the number of synthetic data sets m into the a priori synthesis approach

    Jackson, J., Mitra, R., Francis, B. & Dove, I., 14/09/2022, Privacy in Statistical Databases: International Conference, PSD 2022, Paris, France, September 21–23, 2022, Proceedings. Domingo-Ferrer, J. & Laurent, M. (eds.). Cham: Springer, p. 205-219 15 p. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  19. Published

    Using saturated models for data synthesis

    Jackson, J., Francis, B., Mitra, R. & Dove, I., 18/07/2022, Proceedings of the 36th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling: July 18-22, 2022 - Trieste, Italy. Torelli, N., Bellio, R. & Muggeo, V. (eds.). EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, Trieste 2022, p. 205-210 6 p. 34

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper

  20. Published

    In Honour of Murray Aitkin: Special Issue of <Statistical Modelling>

    Francis, B. (Editor) & Hinde, J. (Editor), 22/04/2022, In: Statistical Modelling. 22, 1-2, p. 1-145 145 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Special issue › peer-review

  21. Published

    Reflections on statistical modelling: A conversation with Murray Aitkin

    Aitkin, M., Hinde, J. & Francis, B., 1/02/2022, In: Statistical Modelling. 22, 1-2, p. 13-32 20 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  22. 2021
  23. Published

    Down syndrome, temporal variation and fallout radiation revisited: Statistical evidence

    Awwad, F., Francis, B. J. & Abonazel, M. R., 16/07/2021, In: Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience. 2021, 15 p., 61.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  24. Published

    On the Unreliability of Multiple Systems Estimation for Estimating the Number of Potential Victims of Modern Slavery in the UK

    Whitehead, J., Jackson, J., Balch, A. & Francis, B., 2/01/2021, In: Journal of Human Trafficking. 7, 1, p. 1-13 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  25. 2020
  26. Published

    Heaviness-brightness correspondence and stimulus-response compatibility

    Walker, P., Scallon, G. & Francis, B., 1/05/2020, In: Attention, Perception, and Psychophysics. 82, p. 1949-1970 22 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  27. 2019
  28. Published

    Bilinear models for score building:

    Francis, B. & Davies, E., 12/2019.

    Research output: Contribution to conference - Without ISBN/ISSN › Abstract › peer-review

  29. Published

    Bilinear models for scaling and score building: when should they be used?

    Francis, B. & Davies, E., 02/2019.

    Research output: Contribution to conference - Without ISBN/ISSN › Abstract › peer-review

  30. 2018
  31. Published

    Data collection on trafficking in human beings in the EU: Final report

    Francis, B., Walby, S., Pattinson, B., Elliott, A., Hoti - Llabjani, V., Phoenix, J., Verrall, R. & Peelo, M., 4/12/2018, Luxembourg: European Commission. 272 p.

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Commissioned report

  32. Published

    Latent class approaches for modelling multiple ordinal items

    Francis, B., 11/11/2018, ASMOD 2018 : Proceedings of the Advanced Statistical Modelling for Ordinal Data Conference : Naples, 24-26 October 2018 . Capecchi, S., Di Iorio, F. & Simone, R. (eds.). Napoli: FedOAPress, p. 3-13 10 p. 2

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter (peer-reviewed) › peer-review

  33. Published

    'If England gets beaten, so will she' – the link between World Cup and violence explained

    Francis, B. & Kirby, S., 11/07/2018

    Research output: Exhibits, objects and web-based outputs › Blog

  34. Published

    Statistical challenges of administrative and transaction data: Contribution to discussion

    Babb, P., Zhang, L.-C., Allin, P., Wallgren, A., Wallgren, B., Blunt, G., Garrett, A., Murtagh, F., Smith, P. W. F., Elliott, D., Nason, G., Powell, B., Moore, J. C., Durrant, G. B., Smith, P. W. F., Smith, P. A., Chambers, R. L., Herzberg, A. M., Pilling, M. & Appleby, W. & 36 others, Barnett, A., Bhansali, R., Bharadwaj, N., Dong, Y., van den Brakel, J. A., Budd, L., Doidge, J., Gilbert, R., Francis, B., Frisoli, K., Nugent, R., Garcia Perez, F. J., Lara, L., Porcu, E., Henry, S., Hunt, I., Ieva, F., Gasperoni, F., Jansson, I., Kumar, K., Longford, N., Manninen, A., Mateu, J., McNicholas, P. D., McNicholas, S. M., Tait, P. A., Mehew, J., Oberski, D. L., Ruiz, M., Yohai, V. J., Zamar, R., Stehlik, M., Stehlikova, S., Nunez Soza, L., Towers, J. & Wijayatunga, P., 06/2018, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 181, 3, p. 578-605 28 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Editorial › peer-review

  35. 2017
  36. Published

    Patterns of infant mortality in rural England and Wales, 1850-1910

    Atkinson, P. D., Francis, B. J., Gregory, I. N. & Porter, C., 1/11/2017, In: Economic History Review. 70, 4, p. 1268-1290 23 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  37. Published

    Cross-sensory correspondences: heaviness is dark and low-pitched

    Walker, P., Scallon, G. & Francis, B. J., 1/07/2017, In: Perception. 46, 7, p. 772-792 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  38. Published

    Statistical modelling of a terrorist network

    Aitkin, M., Vu, D. & Francis, B. J., 06/2017, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 180, 3, p. 751-768 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  39. Published

    Spatial modelling of rural infant mortality and occupation in nineteenth-century Britain

    Atkinson, P. D., Francis, B. J., Gregory, I. N. & Porter, C., 26/04/2017, In: Demographic Research. 36, p. 1337-1360 24 p., 44.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  40. Published

    Changing crime-mix patterns of offending over the life course: a comparative study in England & Wales and the Netherlands.

    Elliott, A., Francis, B. J., Soothill, K. L. & Blokland, A., 6/03/2017, The Routledge Handbook of Life-Course Criminology. Blokland, A. & van der Geest, V. (eds.). London: Routledge, (Routledge International Handbooks).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter (peer-reviewed) › peer-review

  41. Published

    Gambling harm and crime careers

    May-Chahal, C. A., Humphreys, L. N., Clifton, A. K., Francis, B. J. & Reith, G., 1/03/2017, In: Journal of Gambling Studies. 33, 1, p. 65-84 20 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  42. Published

    The concept and measurement of violence against women and men

    Walby, S., Towers, J., Balderston, S., Corradi, C., Francis, B. J., Heiskanen, M., Helweg-Larsen, K., Mergaert, L., Olive, P., Palmer, C. E., Stockl, H. & Strid, S., 14/02/2017, Policy Press.

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Book

  43. 2016
  44. Published

    Investigating the relationship between the diversity index and frequency of offending

    Francis, B. J. & Humphreys, L. N., 12/2016, In: Journal of Developmental and Life Course Criminology . 2, 4, p. 397-416 20 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  45. Published

    Is violence increasing or decreasing? a new methodology to measure repeat attacks making visible the significance of gender and domestic relations

    Walby, S., Towers, J. & Francis, B., 1/11/2016, In: British Journal of Criminology. 56, 6, p. 1203-1234 32 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  46. Published

    Study on comprehensive policy review of anti-trafficking projects funded by the European Commission: HOME/2014/ISFP/PR/THBX/0052

    Walby, S., Towers, J., Francis, B. J., Shire, K., Kelly, L., Apitzsch, B., Armstrong, J. E., Balderston, S., Fish, A. R., Hardaker, C., Kirby, S., May-Chahal, C. A. & Palmer, C. E., 17/10/2016, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. 106 p.

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Commissioned report

  47. Published

    Blackmail

    Francis, B. J., Peelo, M. & Soothill, K., 26/05/2016, Oxford Bibliographies Online: Criminology. Huebner, B. (ed.). New York: Oxford University Press

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Entry for encyclopedia/dictionary

  48. Published

    Using the UK general offender database as a means to measure and analyse organised crime

    Kirby, S., Francis, B., Humphreys, L. & Soothill, K. L., 11/04/2016, In: Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies and Management. 39, 1, p. 78-94 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  49. Published

    The Fetal Observable Movement System (FOMS)

    Reissland, N., Francis, B. J. & Buttanshaw, L., 6/04/2016, Fetal development: research on brain and behavior, environmental influences and emerging technologies. Reissland, N. & Kisilevsky, B. (eds.). New York: Springer International Publishing, p. 153-175 23 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter

  50. Published

    Smoothing group-based trajectory models through B-splines

    Francis, B. J., Elliott, A. & Weldon, M., 04/2016, In: Journal of Developmental and Life Course Criminology . 2, 1, p. 113-133 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  51. Published

    Study on the gender dimension of trafficking in human beings

    Walby, S., Apitzsch, B., Armstrong, J. E., Balderston, S., Szmagalska-Follis, K., Francis, B. J., Kelly, L., May-Chahal, C. A., Rashid, A., Shire, K., Towers, J. & Tunte, M., 16/03/2016, 240 p. Luxembourg : European Commission.

    Research output: Other contribution

  52. Published

    Do fetuses move their lips to the sound that they hear? an observational feasibility study on auditory stimulation in the womb

    Reissland, N., Francis, B. J., Buttanshaw, L., Austen, J. & Reid, V. M., 1/03/2016, In: Pilot and Feasibility Studies. 2, 14, p. 1-7 7 p., 14.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  53. 2015
  54. Published

    The size-brightness correspondence: evidence for crosstalk among aligned conceptual feature dimensions

    Walker, P., Walker, L. & Francis, B., 11/2015, In: Attention, Perception, and Psychophysics. 77, 8, p. 2694-2710 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  55. Published

    A new Bayesian approach for determining the number of components in a finite mixture

    Aitkin, M., Vu, D. & Francis, B., 21/08/2015, In: Metron. 73, 2, p. 155-175 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  56. Published

    Changing prevalence of sex offender convictions: disentangling age, period, and cohort effects over time

    Francis, B., Hargreaves, C. & Soothill, K., 15/08/2015, Sex offenders: a criminal career approach. Blokland, A. & Lussier, P. (eds.). Chichester: Wiley, p. 231-256 26 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter (peer-reviewed)

  57. Published

    Modelling escalation in crime seriousness: a latent variable approach

    Francis, B. & Liu, J., 08/2015, In: Metron. 73, 2, p. 277-297 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  58. Published

    Stopping rape: towards a comprehensive policy

    Walby, S., Olive, P., Towers, J., Francis, B., Strid , S., Krizsan, A., Lombardo , E., May-Chahal, C., Franzway , S., Sugarman, D., Aganwal, B. & Armstrong, J., 22/07/2015, Bristol: Policy Press. 308 p.

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Book

  59. Published

    Robust maximum likelihood estimation of latent class models

    Bartolucci, F., Francis, B., Pandolfi, S. & Pennoni, F., 07/2015, Proceedings of the 30th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling: Proceedings Volume 1. Friedl, H. & Wagner, H. (eds.). Linz, Austria: johannes Kepler University, Linz, p. 94-99 6 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  60. Published

    Ultrasound observations of subtle movements: A pilot study comparing foetuses of smoking and nonsmoking mothers

    Reissland, N., Francis, B., Kumarendran, K. & Mason, J., 1/06/2015, In: Acta Paediatrica, International Journal of Paediatrics. 104, 6, p. 596-603 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  61. Published

    Markov models of dependence in longitudinal paired comparisons: an application to course design

    Grand, A., Dittrich, R. & Francis, B., 04/2015, In: AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis. 99, 2, p. 237-257 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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