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Research

Dr Ivan Svetunkov

Senior Lecturer

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  1. 2025
  2. E-pub ahead of print

    Online Detection of Forecast Model Inadequacies Using Forecast Errors

    Grundy, T., Killick, R. & Svetunkov, I., 11/06/2025, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Journal of Time Series Analysis.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  3. 2024
  4. Published

    Staying Positive: Challenges and Solutions in Using Pure Multiplicative ETS Models

    Svetunkov, I. & Boylan, J. E., 31/07/2024, In: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 35, 3, p. 403-425 23 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  5. Published

    Complex-Valued Econometrics with Examples in R: Modelling, Regression and Applications

    Svetunkov, S. & Svetunkov, I., 26/07/2024, Cham: Springer. 154 p. (Contributions to Economics; vol. Part F3226)

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Monograph

  6. Published

    On the Issue of Choosing the Best Predictive Model Based on Bayesian Principles

    Svetunkov, S. & Svetunkov, I., 21/06/2024, Understanding the Digital Transformation of Socio-Economic-Technological Systems . Campos Devezas, T., Berawi, M. A., Barykin, S. E. & Kudryavtseva, T. (eds.). Cham: Springer, p. 107-119 13 p. (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; vol. 951).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter

  7. Published

    Multi-step Estimators and Shrinkage Effect in Time Series Models

    Svetunkov, I., Kourentzes, N. & Killick, R., 31/05/2024, In: Computational Statistics. 39, 3, p. 1203-1239 37 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  8. 2023
  9. Published

    iETS: State space model for intermittent demand forecasting

    Svetunkov, I. & Boylan, J. E., 30/11/2023, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 265, 109013.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  10. Published

    Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM)

    Svetunkov, I., 17/11/2023, Chapman and Hall. 490 p.

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Monograph

  11. Published

    Guest editorial: In memory of Professor John Edward Boylan, 1959–2023

    Syntetos, A., Fildes, R. & Svetunkov, I., 31/10/2023, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 39, 4, p. 1493-1495 3 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Editorial › peer-review

  12. Published

    What Do We Learn from Forecasting Software Surveys

    Schaer, O., Svetunkov, I. & Fildes, R., 1/10/2023, Foresight Magazine, 71, Q4.

    Research output: Contribution to specialist publication › Article

  13. Published

    Cross-Learning with Short Seasonal Time Series

    Svetunkov, I., Boylan, J. E. & Chen, H., 1/08/2023, In: Foresight Magazine. 70, Q3

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article

  14. Published

    Shrinkage Estimator for Exponential Smoothing Models

    Pritularga, K., Svetunkov, I. & Kourentzes, N., 31/07/2023, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 39, 3, p. 1351-1365 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  15. E-pub ahead of print

    Probabilistic forecasting of hourly emergency department arrivals

    Rostami-Tabar, B., Browell, J. & Svetunkov, I., 1/05/2023, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Health Systems. 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  16. Published

    A New Taxonomy for Vector Exponential Smoothing and Its Application to Seasonal Time Series

    Svetunkov, I., Chen, H. & Boylan, J. E., 1/02/2023, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 304, 3, p. 964-980 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  17. 2022
  18. Published

    Complex exponential smoothing

    Svetunkov, I., Kourentzes, N. & Ord, J. K., 31/12/2022, In: Naval Research Logistics. 69, 8, p. 1108-1123 16 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  19. Published

    Survey: Forecasting Software Trends in a Challenging World

    Schaer, O., Svetunkov, I., Yusupova, A. & Fildes, R., 30/09/2022, In: ORMS-Today. 49, 5

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article

  20. Published

    Newsvendor problems: An integrated method for estimation and optimisation

    Liu, C., Letchford, A. & Svetunkov, I., 16/07/2022, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 300, 2, p. 590-601 12 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  21. 2021
  22. Published

    Stochastic coherency in forecast reconciliation

    Pritularga, K., Svetunkov, I. & Kourentzes, N., 31/10/2021, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 240, 14 p., 108221.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  23. 2020
  24. Published

    Survey: What’s new in forecasting software?

    Fildes, R., Schaer, O., Svetunkov, I. & Yusupova, A., 4/08/2020, In: Operations Research Management Science Today. 47, 4

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article

  25. Published

    State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

    Svetunkov, I. & Boylan, J. E., 1/02/2020, In: International Journal of Production Research. 58, 3, p. 818-827 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  26. Published

    A Simple Combination of Univariate Models

    Petropoulos, F. & Svetunkov, I., 1/01/2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 110-115 6 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  27. 2018
  28. Published

    Producing long-term forecasts of the development of arctic shelf

    Ilinova, A., Chanysheva, A., Kourentzes, N. & Svetunkov, I., 16/10/2018, Innovation-Based Development of the Mineral Resources Sector: Challenges and Prospects: Proceedings of the 11th Russian-German Raw Materials Conference, November 7-8, 2018, Potsdam, Germany. Litvinenko , V. (ed.). CRC Press, p. 539-553 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  29. Published

    Software Survey: Forecasting 2018

    Fildes, R. A., Schaer, O. & Svetunkov, I., 06/2018, In: ORMS-Today. 45, 3

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article

  30. Published

    Complex Exponential Smoothing for Seasonal Time Series

    Svetunkov, I. & Kourentzes, N., 01/2018, Lancaster: Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, p. 1-20, 20 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  31. Published

    Old dog, new tricks: a modelling view of simple moving averages

    Svetunkov, I. & Petropoulos, F., 2018, In: International Journal of Production Research. 56, 18, p. 6034-6047 14 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  32. 2017
  33. Published

    Multiplicative State-Space Models for Intermittent Time Series

    Svetunkov, I. & Boylan, J. E., 7/11/2017, Lancaster: Lancaster University Management School, 43 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  34. Published

    Statistical models underlying functions of 'smooth' package for R

    Svetunkov, I., 28/02/2017, Lancaster: Lancaster University Management School, p. 1-52, 52 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  35. 2016
  36. Published

    Complex exponential smoothing

    Svetunkov, I. & Kourentzes, N., 2/01/2016, Lancaster: Lancaster University Management School, p. 1-31, 31 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  37. Published

    Complex exponential smoothing

    Svetunkov, I., 2016, Lancaster University. 132 p.

    Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

  38. 2011
  39. Published

    New coefficients of econometrics models quality estimation

    Svetunkov, I., 31/12/2011, In: Applied Econometrics. 24, 4, p. 85-99

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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