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  • SSRN_July2023

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Firm‐Level Political Risk and Credit Markets

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

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  • Mahmoud Gad
  • Valeri Nikolaev
  • Laurence van Lent
  • Ahmed Tahoun
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Article number101642
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1/04/2024
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Accounting and Economics
Issue number2-3
Volume77
Number of pages1
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date9/09/23
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

We take advantage of a new composite measure of political risk (Hassan et al., 2019) to study the effects of firm-level political risk on private debt markets. First, we use panel data tests and exploit the redrawing of US congressional districts to uncover plausibly exogenous variation in firm-level political risk. We show that borrowers’ political risk is linked to interest rates set by lenders. Second, we test for the transmission of political risk from lenders to borrowers. We predict and find that lender-level political risk propagates to borrowers through lending relationships. Our analysis allows for endogenous matching between lenders and borrowers and indicates the presence of network effects in diffusing political risk throughout the economy. Finally, we introduce new text-based methods to analyze the distinct sources of political risk to lenders and borrowers and provide textual evidence of the transmission of political risk from lenders to borrowers.