Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Joint Estimation of Extreme Spatially Aggregate...

Electronic data

  • mix_SPASTA_v2

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Spatial Statistics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Spatial Statistics, 53, 2023 DOI: 10.1016/j.spasta.2022.100725

    Accepted author manuscript, 7.05 MB, PDF document

    Embargo ends: 11/01/25

    Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License

Links

Text available via DOI:

View graph of relations

Joint Estimation of Extreme Spatially Aggregated Precipitation at Different Scales through Mixture Modelling

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
Article number100725
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>31/03/2023
<mark>Journal</mark>Spatial Statistics
Volume53
Number of pages21
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date11/01/23
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on pointwise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated at different spatial scales, parsimonious and effective models must be built with knowledge of the underlying spatial process. Precipitation is driven by a mixture of processes acting at different scales and intensities, e.g., convective and frontal, with extremes of aggregates for typical catchment sizes arising from extremes of only one of these processes, rather than a combination of them. High-intensity convective events cause extreme spatial aggregates at small scales but the contribution of lower-intensity large-scale fronts is likely to increase as the area aggregated increases. Thus, to capture small to large scale spatial aggregates within a single approach requires a model that can accurately capture the extremal properties of both convective and frontal events. Previous extreme value methods have ignored this mixture structure; we propose a spatial extreme value model which is a mixture of two components with different marginal and dependence models that are able to capture the extremal behaviour of convective and frontal rainfall and more faithfully reproduces spatial aggregates for a wide range of scales. Modelling extremes of the frontal component raises new challenges due to it exhibiting strong long-range extremal spatial dependence. Our modelling approach is applied to fine-scale, high-dimensional, gridded precipitation data. We show that accounting for the mixture structure improves the joint inference on extremes of spatial aggregates over regions of different sizes.

Bibliographic note

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Spatial Statistics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Spatial Statistics, 53, 2023 DOI: 10.1016/j.spasta.2022.100725