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On the spatial dependence of extreme ocean storm seas

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On the spatial dependence of extreme ocean storm seas. / Ross, Emma; Kereszturi, Monika; van Nee, Mirrelijn; Randell, David; Jonathan, Philip.

In: Ocean Engineering, Vol. 145, No. Supplement C, 15.11.2017, p. 359-372.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

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Ross, E, Kereszturi, M, van Nee, M, Randell, D & Jonathan, P 2017, 'On the spatial dependence of extreme ocean storm seas', Ocean Engineering, vol. 145, no. Supplement C, pp. 359-372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.08.051

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Ross, Emma ; Kereszturi, Monika ; van Nee, Mirrelijn ; Randell, David ; Jonathan, Philip. / On the spatial dependence of extreme ocean storm seas. In: Ocean Engineering. 2017 ; Vol. 145, No. Supplement C. pp. 359-372.

Bibtex

@article{358259ec4eb7481fadc68043411eec81,
title = "On the spatial dependence of extreme ocean storm seas",
abstract = "Contemporaneous occurrences of extreme seas at multiple locations in a neighbourhood can cause greater structural reliability and human safety concerns than extremes at a single location. Understanding spatial dependence of extreme seas is important therefore in metocean design, yet has received little rigorous attention in the offshore engineering literature. We characterise the spatial dependence of storm peak significant wave height using three models motivated by max-stable processes for locations in the northern North Sea. Models for marginal extremes per location, and dependence of extremes between locations, are estimated using Bayesian inference with composite spatial likelihoods. We show that, in addition to marginal directional non-stationarity of extreme seas per location, all three models indicate spatial anisotropy in extremal dependence quantified by the spatial covariance matrix of the corresponding max-stable process. Estimates suggest that extreme seas show greater extremal dependence from West to East than from North to South.",
keywords = "Extreme, Spatial, Dependence, Max-stable process, Composite likelihood, Pooling, North Sea",
author = "Emma Ross and Monika Kereszturi and {van Nee}, Mirrelijn and David Randell and Philip Jonathan",
year = "2017",
month = nov,
day = "15",
doi = "10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.08.051",
language = "English",
volume = "145",
pages = "359--372",
journal = "Ocean Engineering",
issn = "0029-8018",
publisher = "Elsevier Ltd",
number = "Supplement C",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - On the spatial dependence of extreme ocean storm seas

AU - Ross, Emma

AU - Kereszturi, Monika

AU - van Nee, Mirrelijn

AU - Randell, David

AU - Jonathan, Philip

PY - 2017/11/15

Y1 - 2017/11/15

N2 - Contemporaneous occurrences of extreme seas at multiple locations in a neighbourhood can cause greater structural reliability and human safety concerns than extremes at a single location. Understanding spatial dependence of extreme seas is important therefore in metocean design, yet has received little rigorous attention in the offshore engineering literature. We characterise the spatial dependence of storm peak significant wave height using three models motivated by max-stable processes for locations in the northern North Sea. Models for marginal extremes per location, and dependence of extremes between locations, are estimated using Bayesian inference with composite spatial likelihoods. We show that, in addition to marginal directional non-stationarity of extreme seas per location, all three models indicate spatial anisotropy in extremal dependence quantified by the spatial covariance matrix of the corresponding max-stable process. Estimates suggest that extreme seas show greater extremal dependence from West to East than from North to South.

AB - Contemporaneous occurrences of extreme seas at multiple locations in a neighbourhood can cause greater structural reliability and human safety concerns than extremes at a single location. Understanding spatial dependence of extreme seas is important therefore in metocean design, yet has received little rigorous attention in the offshore engineering literature. We characterise the spatial dependence of storm peak significant wave height using three models motivated by max-stable processes for locations in the northern North Sea. Models for marginal extremes per location, and dependence of extremes between locations, are estimated using Bayesian inference with composite spatial likelihoods. We show that, in addition to marginal directional non-stationarity of extreme seas per location, all three models indicate spatial anisotropy in extremal dependence quantified by the spatial covariance matrix of the corresponding max-stable process. Estimates suggest that extreme seas show greater extremal dependence from West to East than from North to South.

KW - Extreme

KW - Spatial

KW - Dependence

KW - Max-stable process

KW - Composite likelihood

KW - Pooling

KW - North Sea

U2 - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.08.051

DO - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.08.051

M3 - Journal article

VL - 145

SP - 359

EP - 372

JO - Ocean Engineering

JF - Ocean Engineering

SN - 0029-8018

IS - Supplement C

ER -