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Predicting space climate change

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Predicting space climate change. / Barnard, L.; Lockwood, M.; Hapgood, M. A.; Owens, M. J.; Davis, C. J.; Steinhilber, F.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, No. 16, L16103, 19.08.2011.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Barnard, L, Lockwood, M, Hapgood, MA, Owens, MJ, Davis, CJ & Steinhilber, F 2011, 'Predicting space climate change', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 38, no. 16, L16103. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048489

APA

Barnard, L., Lockwood, M., Hapgood, M. A., Owens, M. J., Davis, C. J., & Steinhilber, F. (2011). Predicting space climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(16), [L16103]. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048489

Vancouver

Barnard L, Lockwood M, Hapgood MA, Owens MJ, Davis CJ, Steinhilber F. Predicting space climate change. Geophysical Research Letters. 2011 Aug 19;38(16). L16103. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048489

Author

Barnard, L. ; Lockwood, M. ; Hapgood, M. A. ; Owens, M. J. ; Davis, C. J. ; Steinhilber, F. / Predicting space climate change. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2011 ; Vol. 38, No. 16.

Bibtex

@article{30ba15dde2e2455fb58269b23aba3f22,
title = "Predicting space climate change",
abstract = "The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest-fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long-term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300-year record. Citation: Barnard, L., M. Lockwood, M. A. Hapgood, M. J. Owens, C. J. Davis, and F. Steinhilber (2011), Predicting space climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16103, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048489.",
keywords = "FALL, EVENTS, MAGNETIC-FIELD, OPEN SOLAR FLUX",
author = "L. Barnard and M. Lockwood and Hapgood, {M. A.} and Owens, {M. J.} and Davis, {C. J.} and F. Steinhilber",
note = "Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.",
year = "2011",
month = aug,
day = "19",
doi = "10.1029/2011GL048489",
language = "English",
volume = "38",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons, Ltd",
number = "16",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting space climate change

AU - Barnard, L.

AU - Lockwood, M.

AU - Hapgood, M. A.

AU - Owens, M. J.

AU - Davis, C. J.

AU - Steinhilber, F.

N1 - Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

PY - 2011/8/19

Y1 - 2011/8/19

N2 - The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest-fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long-term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300-year record. Citation: Barnard, L., M. Lockwood, M. A. Hapgood, M. J. Owens, C. J. Davis, and F. Steinhilber (2011), Predicting space climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16103, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048489.

AB - The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest-fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long-term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300-year record. Citation: Barnard, L., M. Lockwood, M. A. Hapgood, M. J. Owens, C. J. Davis, and F. Steinhilber (2011), Predicting space climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16103, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048489.

KW - FALL

KW - EVENTS

KW - MAGNETIC-FIELD

KW - OPEN SOLAR FLUX

U2 - 10.1029/2011GL048489

DO - 10.1029/2011GL048489

M3 - Journal article

VL - 38

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 16

M1 - L16103

ER -