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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Prediction of storm transfers and annual loads with data-based mechanistic models using high-frequency data. / Ockenden, Mary; Tych, Wlodzimierz; Beven, Keith John et al.
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 21, 18.12.2017, p. 6425-6444.Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction of storm transfers and annual loads with data-based mechanistic models using high-frequency data
AU - Ockenden, Mary
AU - Tych, Wlodzimierz
AU - Beven, Keith John
AU - Collins, Adrian
AU - Evans, Robert
AU - Falloon, Peter
AU - Forber, Kirsty Jessica
AU - Hiscock, Kevin
AU - Hollaway, Michael John
AU - Kahana, Ron
AU - Macleod, Christopher J.A.
AU - Villamizar, Martha
AU - Wearing, Catherine Louise
AU - Withers, Paul J.A
AU - Zhou, Jian
AU - Benskin, Clare McWilliam Haldane
AU - Burke, Sean
AU - Cooper, Richard
AU - Freer, Jim
AU - Haygarth, Philip Matthew
PY - 2017/12/18
Y1 - 2017/12/18
N2 - Excess nutrients in surface waters, such as phosphorus (P) from agriculture, result in poor water quality, with adverse effects on ecological health and costs for remediation. However, understanding and prediction of P transfers in catchments have been limited by inadequate data and over-parameterised models with high uncertainty. We show that, with high temporal resolution data, we are able to identify simple dynamic models that capture the P load dynamicsin three contrasting agricultural catchments in the UK. 10 For a flashy catchment, a linear, second-order (two pathways) model for discharge gave high simulation efficiencies for short-term storm sequences and was useful in highlighting uncertainties in out-of-bank flows. A model with nonlinear rainfall input was appropriate for predicting seasonal 15 or annual cumulative P loads where antecedent conditions affected the catchment response. For second-order models, the time constant for the fast pathway varied between 2 and 15 h for all three catchments and for both discharge and P, confirming that high temporal resolution data are necessary 20 to capture the dynamic responses in small catchments (10–50 km2/. The models led to a better understanding of the dominant nutrient transfer modes, which will be helpful in determining phosphorus transfers following changes in precipitation patterns in the future.
AB - Excess nutrients in surface waters, such as phosphorus (P) from agriculture, result in poor water quality, with adverse effects on ecological health and costs for remediation. However, understanding and prediction of P transfers in catchments have been limited by inadequate data and over-parameterised models with high uncertainty. We show that, with high temporal resolution data, we are able to identify simple dynamic models that capture the P load dynamicsin three contrasting agricultural catchments in the UK. 10 For a flashy catchment, a linear, second-order (two pathways) model for discharge gave high simulation efficiencies for short-term storm sequences and was useful in highlighting uncertainties in out-of-bank flows. A model with nonlinear rainfall input was appropriate for predicting seasonal 15 or annual cumulative P loads where antecedent conditions affected the catchment response. For second-order models, the time constant for the fast pathway varied between 2 and 15 h for all three catchments and for both discharge and P, confirming that high temporal resolution data are necessary 20 to capture the dynamic responses in small catchments (10–50 km2/. The models led to a better understanding of the dominant nutrient transfer modes, which will be helpful in determining phosphorus transfers following changes in precipitation patterns in the future.
KW - PHOSPHORUS
KW - DISCHARGE
KW - Data-based mechanistic modelling
KW - Newby Beck
KW - Blackwater
KW - Wylye
U2 - 10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017
DO - 10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017
M3 - Journal article
VL - 21
SP - 6425
EP - 6444
JO - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
SN - 1027-5606
ER -