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Professor Nikos Kourentzes

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  1. 2024
  2. E-pub ahead of print

    Forecast reconciliation: A review

    Athanasopoulos, G., Hyndman, R. J., Kourentzes, N. & Panagiotelis, A., 30/04/2024, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 40, 2, p. 430-456 27 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  3. 2023
  4. E-pub ahead of print

    Multi-step Estimators and Shrinkage Effect in Time Series Models

    Svetunkov, I., Kourentzes, N. & Killick, R., 24/06/2023, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Computational Statistics.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  5. Published

    Use of contextual and model-based information in adjusting promotional forecasts

    Sroginis, A., Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N., 16/06/2023, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 307, 3, p. 1177-1191 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  6. 2022
  7. Published

    Complex exponential smoothing

    Svetunkov, I., Kourentzes, N. & Ord, J. K., 31/12/2022, In: Naval Research Logistics. 69, 8, p. 1108-1123 16 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  8. Published

    Forecasting Seasonal Sales with Many Drivers: Shrinkage or Dimensionality Reduction?

    Ramos, P., Oliveira, J. M., Kourentzes, N. & Fildes, R., 26/12/2022, In: Applied System Innovation. 6, 1, 3.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  9. Published

    Forecasting: theory and practice

    Petropoulos, F., Apiletti, D., Assimakopoulos, V., Babai, M. Z., Barrow, D. K., Ben Taieb, S., Bergmeir, C., Bessa, R. J., Bijak, J., Boylan, J. E., Browell, J., Carnevale, C., Castle, J. L., Cirillo, P., Clements, M. P., Cordeiro, C., Cyrino Oliveira, F. L., De Baets, S., Dokumentov, A., Ellison, J., & 60 othersFiszeder, P., Franses, P. H., Frazier, D. T., Gilliland, M., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Grossi, L., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Guidolin, M., Guidolin, M., Gunter, U., Guo, X., Guseo, R., Harvey, N., Hendry, D. F., Hollyman, R., Januschowski, T., Jeon, J., Jose, V. R. R., Kang, Y., Koehler, A. B., Kolassa, S., Kourentzes, N., Leva, S., Li, F., Litsiou, K., Makridakis, S., Martin, G. M., Martinez, A. B., Meeran, S., Modis, T., Nikolopoulos, K., Önkal, D., Paccagnini, A., Panagiotelis, A., Panapakidis, I., Pavía, J. M., Pedio, M., Pedregal, D. J., Pinson, P., Ramos, P., Rapach, D. E., Reade, J. J., Rostami-Tabar, B., Rubaszek, M., Sermpinis, G., Shang, H. L., Spiliotis, E., Syntetos, A. A., Talagala, P. D., Talagala, T. S., Tashman, L., Thomakos, D., Thorarinsdottir, T., Todini, E., Trapero Arenas, J. R., Wang, X., Winkler, R. L., Yusupova, A. & Ziel, F., 1/07/2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 3, p. 705-871 167 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  10. 2021
  11. Published

    Stochastic coherency in forecast reconciliation

    Pritularga, K., Svetunkov, I. & Kourentzes, N., 31/10/2021, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 240, 14 p., 108221.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  12. Published

    Elucidate structure in intermittent demand series

    Kourentzes, N. & Athanasopoulos, G., 1/01/2021, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 288, 1, p. 141-152 12 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  13. 2020
  14. Published

    Automatic robust estimation for exponential smoothing: Perspectives from statistics and machine learning

    Barrow, D., Kourentzes, N., Sandberg, R. & Niklewski, J., 1/12/2020, In: Expert Systems with Applications. 160, 14 p., 113637.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  15. Published

    Optimising forecasting models for inventory planning

    Kourentzes, N., Trapero, J. R. & Barrow, D., 1/07/2020, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 225, 9 p., 107597.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  16. Published

    Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption

    Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N. & Assimakopoulos, V., 1/03/2020, In: Applied Energy. 261, 12 p., 114339.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  17. 2019
  18. Published

    Empirical safety stock estimation based on kernel and GARCH models

    Trapero Arenas, J. R., Cardos, M. & Kourentzes, N., 04/2019, In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 84, p. 199-211 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  19. Published

    Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism

    Kourentzes, N. & Athanasopoulos, G., 31/03/2019, In: Annals of Tourism Research. 75, p. 393-409 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  20. Published

    Another look at forecast selection and combination: evidence from forecast pooling

    Kourentzes, N., Barrow, D. K. & Petropoulos, F., 1/03/2019, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 209, p. 226-235 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  21. Published

    Incorporating macroeconomic leading indicators in tactical capacity planning

    Sagaert, Y. R., Kourentzes, N., De Vuyst, S., Aghezzaf, E-H. & Desmet, B., 1/03/2019, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 209, p. 12-19 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  22. Published

    Unconstraining methods for revenue management systems under small demand

    Kourentzes, N., Li, D. & Strauss, A., 14/02/2019, In: Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management. 18, 1, p. 27-41 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  23. Unpublished

    Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz

    Schaer, O., Kourentzes, N. & Fildes, R. A., 3/02/2019, (Unpublished) Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, p. 1-39, 39 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  24. Published

    Demand forecasting with user-generated online information

    Schaer, O., Kourentzes, N. & Fildes, R. A., 01/2019, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 197-212 16 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  25. Published

    Quantile forecast optimal combination to enhance safety stock estimation

    Trapero Arenas, J. R., Cardos, M. & Kourentzes, N., 01/2019, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 239-250 12 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  26. 2018
  27. Unpublished

    Demand forecasting with user-generated online information

    Schaer, O., Kourentzes, N. & Fildes, R. A., 26/02/2018, (Unpublished) Lancaster: Lancaster University Management School, p. 1-41, 41 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  28. Published

    The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: a neural network approach to modelling special days

    Barrow, D. K. & Kourentzes, N., 1/02/2018, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 264, 3, p. 967-977 11 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  29. Published

    Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators

    Sagaert, Y. R., Aghezzaf, E-H., Kourentzes, N. & Desmet, B., 16/01/2018, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 264, 2, p. 558-569 12 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  30. Published

    Complex Exponential Smoothing for Seasonal Time Series

    Svetunkov, I. & Kourentzes, N., 01/2018, Lancaster: Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, p. 1-20, 20 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  31. Published

    Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models

    Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N., Nikolopoulos, K. & Siemsen, E., 2018, In: Journal of Operations Management. 60, p. 34-46 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  32. Published

    On the use of multi-step cost functions for generating forecasts

    Kourentzes, N. & Trapero, J. R., 2018, Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, p. 1-38, 38 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  33. Published

    Temporal big data for tire industry tactical sales forecasting

    Sagaert, Y. R., Aghezzaf, E-H., Kourentzes, N. & Desmet, B., 2018, In: Interfaces. 48, 2, p. 121-129 9 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  34. 2017
  35. Published

    Forecasting with temporal hierarchies

    Athanasopoulos, G., Hyndman, R. J., Kourentzes, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1/10/2017, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 262, 1, p. 60-74 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  36. Published

    Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation: using optimal or multiple aggregation levels?

    Kourentzes, N., Rostami-Tabar, B. & Barrow, D., 09/2017, In: Journal of Business Research. 78, p. 1-9 9 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  37. Published

    Principles of Business Forecasting

    Ord, K., Fildes, R. A. & Kourentzes, N., 1/07/2017, 2nd ed. New York: Wessex Press Publishing Co.

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Book

  38. Published

    Simplifying fitness games for users with learning disabilities, Hawaii International Conference on Systems and Sciences (HICSS) 2017

    Liu, L., Stacey, P., Tarafdar, M. & Kourentzes, N., 4/01/2017.

    Research output: Contribution to conference - Without ISBN/ISSN › Conference paper › peer-review

  39. 2016
  40. Published

    Another look at estimators for intermittent demand

    Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N. & Nikolopoulos, K., 11/2016, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 181 , Part A, p. 154-161 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  41. Published

    Forecasting with multivariate temporal aggregation: the case of promotional modelling

    Kourentzes, N. & Petropoulos, F., 11/2016, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 181, Part A, p. 145-153 9 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  42. Published

    Empirical safety stock estimation based on Kernel and GARCH models

    Trapero Arenas, J. R., Cardos, M. & Kourentzes, N., 19/10/2016.

    Research output: Working paper

  43. Published

    Distributions of forecasting errors of forecast combinations: implications for inventory management

    Barrow, D. K. & Kourentzes, N., 07/2016, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 177, p. 24-33 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  44. Published

    Commentary: two sides of the same coin

    Petropoulos, F. & Kourentzes, N., 1/06/2016, In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 42, p. 37-39 3 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  45. Published

    Complex exponential smoothing

    Svetunkov, I. & Kourentzes, N., 2/01/2016, Lancaster: Lancaster University Management School, p. 1-31, 31 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  46. 2015
  47. Published

    Forecast combinations for intermittent demand

    Petropoulos, F. & Kourentzes, N., 06/2015, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 66, 6, p. 914-924 11 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  48. Published

    Short-term solar irradiation forecasting based on dynamic harmonic regression

    Trapero, J. R., Kourentzes, N. & Martin, A., 1/05/2015, In: Energy. 84, p. 289-295 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  49. Unpublished

    Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies

    Athanasopoulos, G., Hyndman, R. J., Kourentzes, N. & Petropoulos, F., 2015, (Unpublished) Lancaster: Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 26 p.

    Research output: Working paper

  50. 2014
  51. Published

    On intermittent demand model optimisation and selection

    Kourentzes, N., 10/2014, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 156, p. 180-190 11 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  52. Published

    Neural network ensemble operators for time series forecasting

    Kourentzes, N., Barrow, D. & Crone, S., 07/2014, In: Expert Systems with Applications. 41, 9, p. 4235-4244 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  53. Published

    Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies

    Kourentzes, N., Petropoulos, F. & Trapero, J. R., 04/2014, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 30, 2, p. 291-302 12 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  54. Published

    Impact of demand nature on the bullwhip effect: bridging the gap between theoretical and empirical research

    Trapero, J. R., Garcia, F. P. & Kourentzes, N., 2014, Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management.. Xu, J., Fry, J. A., Lev, B. & Hajiyev, A. (eds.). Berlin: Springer Verlag, p. 1127-1137 11 p. (Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering; vol. 242).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter (peer-reviewed)

  55. Published

    Improving forecasting via multiple temporal aggregation

    Petropoulos, F. & Kourentzes, N., 2014, In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2014, 34, p. 12-17 6 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  56. Published

    On the identification of sales forecasting models in the presence of promotions

    Trapero, J. R., Kourentzes, N. & Fildes, R., 2014, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 66, p. 299-307 9 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  57. 2013
  58. Published

    Intermittent demand forecasts with neural networks

    Kourentzes, N., 05/2013, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 143, 1, p. 198-206 9 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  59. Published

    Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions

    Trapero Arenas, J., Pedregal, D. J., Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N., 04/2013, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 234-243 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  60. 2012
  61. Published

    Impact of Information Exchange on Supplier Forecasting Performance

    Trapero Arenas, J., Kourentzes, N. & Fildes, R., 12/2012, In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 738-747 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  62. Published

    Data driven fitting sample selection for time series forecasting with neural networks

    Kourentzes, N., 2012, The 2012 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN). IEEE, 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  63. 2011
  64. Published

    Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change

    Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N., 10/2011, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 27, 4, p. 968-995 28 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  65. Published

    Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change: Postscript

    Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N., 10/2011, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 27, 4, p. 1004-1005 2 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Editorial › peer-review

  66. Published

    Modelling functional outliers for high frequency time series forecasting with neural networks: an empirical evaluation for electricity load data

    Kourentzes, N., 2011, Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on Data Mining. Stahlbock, R. (ed.). CSREA Press, p. 313-319 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  67. Published

    Semi-supervised monitoring of electric load time series for unusual patterns

    Kourentzes, N. & Crone, S. F., 2011, The 2011 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN). New York: IEEE, p. 2852-2859 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  68. Published

    The impact of preprocessing on forecasting electrical load: an empirical evaluation of segmenting time series into subseries

    Crone, S. F. & Kourentzes, N., 2011, The 2011 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN). New York: IEEE, p. 3285-3292 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  69. Published

    The value of corporate risk management: Is predictive modelling possible?

    Panaretou, A. & Kourentzes, N., 2011, 34th Annual Congress of European Accounting Association, EAA 2011.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  70. 2010
  71. Published

    Feature selection for time series prediction - A combined filter and wrapper approach for neural networks

    Crone, S. F. & Kourentzes, N., 06/2010, In: Neurocomputing. 73, 10-12, p. 1923-1936 14 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  72. Published

    Advances in forecasting with artificial neural networks

    Kourentzes, N. & Crone, S., 2010, Lancaster University: The Department of Management Science, (Management Science Working Paper Series).

    Research output: Working paper

  73. Published

    An Evaluation of Neural Network Ensembles and Model Selection for Time Series Prediction

    Barrow, D. K., Crone, S. F. & Kourentzes, N., 2010, The 2010 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN). New York: IEEE, p. 1-8 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  74. Published

    Frequency independent automatic input variable selection for neural networks for forecasting

    Kourentzes, N. & Crone, S. F., 2010, The 2010 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) . New York: IEEE, p. - 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  75. Published

    Impact of Information Exchange on Supplier Forecasting Performance

    Trapero Arenas, J. R., Kourentzes, N. & Fildes, R. A., 2010, Lancaster University: The Department of Management Science, (Management Science Working Paper Series).

    Research output: Working paper

  76. Published

    Inference for Neural Network Predictive Models with Impulse Interventions

    Kourentzes, N. & Crone, S., 2010, International Conference on Data Mining (Las Vegas) - 2010. Stahlbock, R., Crone, S. F., Abou-Nasr, M., Arabnia, H. R., Kourentzes, N., Lenca, P., Lippe, W-M. & Weiss, G. M. (eds.). CSREA Press, p. 273-279 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  77. Published

    Modelling Deterministic Seasonality with Artificial Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting

    Kourentzes, N. & Crone, S., 2010, Lancaster University: The Department of Management Science, (Management Science Working Paper Series).

    Research output: Working paper

  78. Published

    Naive Support Vector Regression and Multilayer Perceptron Benchmarks for the 2010 Neural Network Grand Competition (NNGC) on Time Series Prediction

    Crone, S. F. & Kourentzes, N., 2010, The 2010 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN). New York: IEEE, p. - 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  79. Published

    Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference on Data Mining

    Stahlbock, R. (ed.), Crone, S. (ed.), Abou-Nasr, M. (ed.), Arabnia, H. R. (ed.), Kourentzes, N. (ed.), Lenca, P. (ed.), Lippe, W-M. (ed.) & Weiss, G. M. (ed.), 2010, CSREA Press.

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Proceedings

  80. Published

    Validation in models of climate change and forecasting accuracy

    Fildes, R. A. & Kourentzes, N., 2010, Lancaster University: The Department of Management Science, (Management Science Working Paper Series).

    Research output: Working paper

  81. 2009
  82. Unpublished

    Input variable selection for time series forecasting with artificial neural networks: an empirical evaluation across varying time series frequencies

    Kourentzes, N., 20/11/2009, (Unpublished) Lancaster University. 238 p.

    Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

  83. Published

    Forecasting seasonal time series with multilayer perceptrons - an empirical evaluation of input vector specifications for deterministic seasonality

    Crone, S. & Kourentzes, N., 2009, Proceedings of The 2009 International Conference on Data Mining, DMIN 2009, July 13-16, 2009, Las Vegas, USA. . Stahlbock, R., Crone, S. F. & Lessmann, S. (eds.). CSREA Press, p. 232-238 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  84. Published

    Input-variable Specification for Neural Networks - an Analysis of Forecasting low and high Time Series Frequency

    Crone, S. F. & Kourentzes, N., 2009, International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, 2009. IJCNN 2009.. New York: IEEE, p. 3221-3228 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  85. 2008
  86. Published

    Automatic modelling of neural networks for time series prediction - in search of a uniform methodology across varying time frequencies

    Kourentzes, N. & Crone, S., 2008, 2nd European Symposium on Time Series Prediction (Helsinki) - 2008. N/A: unknown

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  87. Published

    Forecasting high-frequency time series with neural networks - an analysis of modelling challenges from increasing data frequency

    Crone, S. & Kourentzes, N., 2008, International Conference on Data Mining (Las Vegas) - 2008. Stahlbock, R., Crone, S. F. & Lessmann, S. (eds.). CSREA Press

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  88. 2007
  89. Published

    Input variable selection for time series prediction with neural networks- an evaluation of visual, autocorrelation and spectral analysis for varying seasonality

    Crone, S. & Kourentzes, N., 2007, The 1st European Symposium on Time Series Prediction, ESTSP'07 (Helsinki, Finland) - 2007. N/A: unknown

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

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