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Research

Professor Philip Jonathan

Chair in Environmental Statistics and Data Science

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  1. 2025
  2. Published

    Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables

    Leach, C., Ewans, K. & Jonathan, P., 30/04/2025, In: Ocean Engineering. 324, 120605.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  3. E-pub ahead of print

    Calibration of medium-range metocean forecasts for the North Sea

    Murphy, C., Towe, R. & Jonathan, P., 31/05/2025, In: Applied Ocean Research. 158, 104538.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  4. Published

    The SPAR Model: A New Paradigm for Multivariate Extremes: Application to Joint Distributions of Metocean Variables

    Mackay, E. B. L., Murphy-Barltrop, C. J. R. & Jonathan, P., 1/02/2025, In: Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. 147, 1, 011205.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  5. Published

    Reducing the CO<sub>2</sub> footprint at an LNG asset with replicate trains using operational data-driven analysis. A case study on end flash vessels

    Paleja, R., Osemwinyen, E., Jones, M., Ayoola, J., Pitchumani, R. & Jonathan, P., 31/01/2025, In: Data-Centric Engineering. 6, e1.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  6. 2024
  7. Published

    Practical non-stationary extreme value analysis of peaks over threshold using the generalised Pareto distribution: Estimating uncertainties in return values

    Tendijck, S., Randell, D., Feld, G. & Jonathan, P., 15/11/2024, In: Ocean Engineering. 312, 119247.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  8. Published

    Estimating Metocean Environments Associated with Extreme Structural Response to Demonstrate the Dangers of Environmental Contour Methods

    Speers, M., Randell, D., Tawn, J. & Jonathan, P., 1/11/2024, In: Ocean Engineering. 311, 118754.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  9. E-pub ahead of print

    Inference for bivariate extremes via a semi-parametric angular-radial model

    Murphy-Barltrop, C. J. R., Mackay, E. & Jonathan, P., 3/10/2024, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Extremes.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  10. Published

    Multivariate spatial and spatio-temporal models for extreme tropical cyclone seas

    Sando, K., Wada, R., Rohmer, J. & Jonathan, P., 1/10/2024, In: Ocean Engineering. 309, 1, 118365.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  11. Published

    covXtreme: MATLAB software for non-stationary penalised piecewise constant marginal and conditional extreme value models

    Towe, R., Ross, E., Randell, D. & Jonathan, P., 06/2024, In: Environmental Modelling and Software. 177, 106035.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  12. 2023
  13. E-pub ahead of print

    Temporal evolution of the extreme excursions of multivariate k $$ k $$ th order Markov processes with application to oceanographic data

    Tendijck, S., Tawn, J., Randell, D. & Jonathan, P., 3/12/2023, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Environmetrics.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  14. Published

    Avoiding methane emission rate underestimates when using the divergence method

    Roberts, C., IJzermans, R., Randell, D., Jones, M., Jonathan, P., Mandel, K., Hirst, B. & Shorttle, O., 1/11/2023, In: Environmental Research Letters. 18, 11, 114033.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  15. Published

    Extremal characteristics of conditional models

    Tendijck, S., Tawn, J. & Jonathan, P., 31/03/2023, In: Extremes. 26, 1, p. 139-156 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  16. Published

    Estimation of associated values from conditional extreme value models

    Towe, R., Randell, D., Kensler, J., Feld, G. & Jonathan, P., 15/03/2023, In: Ocean Engineering. 272, 15 p., 113808.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  17. Published

    Uncertainties in estimating the effect of climate change on 100-year return value for significant wave height

    Ewans, K. & Jonathan, P., 15/03/2023, In: Ocean Engineering. 272, 17 p., 113840.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  18. Published

    A penalised piecewise-linear model for non-stationary extreme value analysis of peaks over threshold

    Barlow, A. M., Mackay, E., Eastoe, E. & Jonathan, P., 1/01/2023, In: Ocean Engineering. 267, 14 p., 113265.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  19. 2022
  20. Published

    On wave impact pressure variability

    Raby, A., Bullock, G., Jonathan, P., Randell, D. & Whittaker, C., 31/10/2022, In: Coastal Engineering. 177, 16 p., 104168.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  21. Published

    Implications of the Loads Jip on Extreme Wave Conditions in the North Sea

    Feld, G., Randell, D. & Phillip, J., 1/10/2022, Ageing and Life Extensions of Offshore Facilities. Salama, M. M., Stacey, A. & Ersdal, G. (eds.). New York: ASME, p. 181-193 13 p. (Ageing and Life Extension of Offshore Facilities).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter (peer-reviewed) › peer-review

  22. Published

    Enhanced monitoring of atmospheric methane from space over the Permian basin with hierarchical Bayesian inference

    Roberts, C., Shorttle, O., Mandel, K., Jones, M., Ijzermans, R., Hirst, B. & Jonathan, P., 1/06/2022, In: Environmental Research Letters. 17, 6, 15 p., 064037.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Letter › peer-review

  23. Published

    Fitting limit lines (envelope curves) to spreads of geoenvironmental data

    Carling, P. A., Jonathan, P. & Su, T., 1/04/2022, In: Progress in Physical Geography. 46, 2, p. 272-290 19 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  24. Published

    Multivariate spatial conditional extremes for extreme ocean environments

    Shooter, R., Ross, E., Ribal, A., Young, I. R. & Jonathan, P., 31/03/2022, In: Ocean Engineering. 247, 11 p., 110647.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  25. Published

    A multivariate pseudo-likelihood approach to estimating directional ocean wave models

    Grainger, J. P., Sykulski, A. M., Ewans, K., Hansen, H. F. & Jonathan, P., 8/02/2022, In: arXiv.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article

  26. 2021
  27. Published

    The effect of serial correlation in environmental conditions on estimates of extreme events

    Mackay, E., de Hauteclocque, G., Vanem, E. & Jonathan, P., 15/12/2021, In: Ocean Engineering. 242, 18 p., 110092.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  28. Published

    Sampling properties and empirical estimates of extreme events

    Mackay, E. & Jonathan, P., 1/11/2021, In: Ocean Engineering. 239, 8 p., 109791.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  29. Published

    Efficient estimation of distributional properties of extreme seas from a hierarchical description applied to calculation of un-manning and other weather-related operational windows

    Towe, R., Zanini, E., Randell, D., Feld, G. & Jonathan, P., 15/10/2021, In: Ocean Engineering. 238, 11 p., 109642.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  30. Published

    Bayes linear analysis for ordinary differential equations

    Jones, M., Goldstein, M., Randell, D. & Jonathan, P., 30/09/2021, In: Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 161, 27 p., 107228.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  31. Published

    A benchmarking exercise for environmental contours

    Haselsteiner, A. F., Coe, R. G., Manuel, L., Chai, W., Leira, B., Clarindo, G., Guedes Soares, C., Hannesdóttir, Á., Dimitrov, N., Sander, A., Ohlendorf, J.-H., Thoben, K.-D., Hauteclocque, G. D., Mackay, E., Jonathan, P., Qiao, C., Myers, A., Rode, A., Hildebrandt, A. & Schmidt, B. & 2 others, Vanem, E. & Huseby, A. B., 15/09/2021, In: Ocean Engineering. 236, 29 p., 109504.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  32. Published

    Modeling nonstationary extremes of storm severity: Comparing parametric and semiparametric inference

    Konzen, E., Neves, C. & Jonathan, P., 30/06/2021, In: Environmetrics. 32, 4, 23 p., e2667.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  33. Published

    Spatial dependence of extreme seas in the North East Atlantic from satellite altimeter measurements

    Shooter, R., Ross, E., Ribal, A., Young, I. R. & Jonathan, P., 30/06/2021, In: Environmetrics. 32, 4, 15 p., e2674.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  34. Published

    Estimating the parameters of ocean wave spectra

    Grainger, J., Sykulski, A., Jonathan, P. & Ewans, K., 1/06/2021, In: Ocean Engineering. 229, 20 p., 108934.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  35. Published

    Identifying Higher-Order Interactions in Wave Time-Series

    Ewans, K., Christou, M., Ilic, S. & Jonathan, P., 1/04/2021, In: Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. 143, 2, 9 p., 021201.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  36. Published

    Uncertainties in return values from extreme value analysis of peaks over threshold using the generalised Pareto distribution

    Jonathan, P., Randell, D., Wadsworth, J. & Tawn, J., 15/01/2021, In: Ocean Engineering. 220, 17 p., 107725.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  37. Published

    The Role of Digital Technologies in Responding to the Grand Challenges of the Natural Environment: The Windermere Accord

    Blair, G., Bassett, R., Bastin, L., Beevers, L., Borrajo Garcia, M., Brown, M., Dance, S., Dionescu, A., Edwards, L., Ferrario, M. A., Fraser, R., Fraser, H., Gardner, S., Henrys, P. A., Hey, T., Homann, S., Huijbers, C., Hutchison, J., Jonathan, P. & Lamb, R. & 21 others, Laurie, S., Leeson, A., Leslie, D., McMillan, M., Nundloll, V., Oyebamiji, O., Phillipson, J., Pope, V., Prudden, R., Reis, S., Salama, M., Samreen, F., Sejdinovic, D., Simm, W., Street, R., Thornton, L., Towe, R., Vande Hey, J. D., Vieno, M., Waller, J. & Watkins, J., 8/01/2021, In: Patterns. 2, 1, 8 p., 100156.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  38. 2020
  39. Published

    On the distribution of maximum crest and wave height at intermediate water depths

    Schubert, M., Wu, Y., Tychsen, J., Dixen, M., Faber, M. H., Sørensen, J. D. & Jonathan, P., 1/12/2020, In: Ocean Engineering. 217, 20 p., 107485.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  40. Estimation of environmental contours using a block resampling method

    Mackay, E. B. L. & Jonathan, P., 7/08/2020, Structures, Safety, and Reliability. American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), V02AT02A045. (Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering - OMAE; vol. 2A-2020).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper

  41. Published

    Flexible covariate representations for extremes

    Zanini, E., Eastoe, E., Jones, M., Randell, D. & Jonathan, P., 1/08/2020, In: Environmetrics. 31, 5, 20 p., e2624.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  42. Published

    Assessment of return value estimates from stationary and non-stationary extreme value models

    Mackay, E. & Jonathan, P., 1/07/2020, In: Ocean Engineering. 207, 20 p., 107406.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  43. Published

    Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

    Vanem, E., Guo, B., Ross, E. & Jonathan, P., 31/01/2020, In: Marine Structures. 69, 19 p., 102680.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  44. Published

    Directional–seasonal extreme value analysis of North Sea storm conditions

    Hansen, H. F., Randell, D., Zeeberg, A. R. & Jonathan, P., 1/01/2020, In: Ocean Engineering. 195, 17 p., 106665.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  45. Published

    On environmental contours for marine and coastal design

    Ross, E., Astrup, O. C., Bitner-Gregersen, E., Bunn, N., Feld, G., Gouldby, B., Huseby, A., Liu, Y., Randell, D., Vanem, E. & Jonathan, P., 1/01/2020, In: Ocean Engineering. 195, 17 p., 106194.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  46. Published

    Spatial features of extreme waves in gulf of Mexico

    Wada, R., Jonathan, P. & Waseda, T., 2020, Ocean Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), V06BT06A007. (Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering - OMAE; vol. 6B-2020).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper

  47. 2019
  48. Published

    Estimating extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico using a simple spatial extremes model

    Wada, R., Jonathan, P., Waseda, T. & Fan, S., 11/11/2019, ASME 2019 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. ASME, 6 p.

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  49. Published

    Identifying higher-order interactions in wave time-series

    Ewans, K., Christou, M., Ilic, S. & Jonathan, P., 1/11/2019, Proceedings of the ASME 2019 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering OMAE2019 June 9-14, 2019, Glasgow, Scotland. ASME, 11 p. OMAE2019-95378

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  50. Published

    On environmental contours for marine and coastal design

    Ross, E., Randell, D., Astrup, O. C., Bitner-Gregersen, E., Vanem, E., Bunn, N., Gouldby, B., Liu, Y., Feld, G., Huseby, A. & Jonathan, P., 1/11/2019, Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering. ASME, Vol. 7B. 8 p. OMAE2019-96587

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  51. Published

    Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis

    Anokhin, A., Randell, D., Ross, E. & Jonathan, P., 1/11/2019, Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering. ASME, Vol. 7B. 10 p. OMAE2019-95913

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  52. Published

    On spatial conditional extremes for ocean storm severity

    Shooter, R., Tawn, J. A., Jonathan, P. & Ross, E., 1/09/2019, In: Environmetrics. 30, 6, 18 p., e2562.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  53. Published

    On the estimation and application of directional design criteria

    Feld, G., Randell, D. & Jonathan, P., 11/02/2019, Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering. ASME

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  54. Published

    Design conditions for waves and water levels using extreme value analysis with covariates

    Feld, G., Randell, D., Ross, E. & Jonathan, P., 10/02/2019, In: Ocean Engineering. 173, p. 851-866 16 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  55. Published

    A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms

    Tendijck, S., Ross, E., Randell, D. & Jonathan, P., 1/02/2019, In: Environmetrics. 30, 1, 14 p., e2541.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  56. 2018
  57. Published

    Bayes linear analysis of risks in sequential optimal design problems

    Jones, M., Goldstein, M., Jonathan, P. & Randell, D., 31/12/2018, In: Electronic Journal of Statistics. 12, 2, p. 4002-4031 30 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  58. Published

    A simple spatial model for extreme tropical cyclone seas

    Wada, R., Waseda, T. & Jonathan, P., 1/12/2018, In: Ocean Engineering. 169, p. 315-325 11 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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